JP Morgan Reevaluates Q1 Expectations for Macau’s Gaming Sector


After the impact of the pandemic, the gambling sector in Macau started to slowly emerge. The lifting of restrictions combined with the reopening of venues helped the industry begin its recovery. Now, a few years after the pandemic, Macau’s gaming revenues continue to rise and in fact, marked a significant year-over-year increase this March.

In total, the gross gaming revenue (GGR) last month hit MOP$12.7 billion ($1.58 billion). This result represented a significant increase on a year-over-year basis. Moreover, the figure from March marked the best result for the sector since the start of the pandemic, reaffirming the return of normal business conditions for Macau.

Initial projections for the revenue in March this year predicted a rise in GGR of more than 200%. However, in the end, GGR last month surpassed even the projections, soaring to nearly 250% above the results reported in March 2022. The $1.58 billion GGR result from last month was good, but it still could not surpass the pre-COVID results. However, it showed that the sector’s gradual recovery has started.

Focusing on the bigger picture, the GGR for the first quarter, or the period between January and March this year, marked an increase. In total, GGR for the first quarter hit MOP$34.6 billion ($4.29 billion), representing an increase of 95% when compared to the same period in 2022. Although this was undoubtedly a strong result, it still came short when compared to Q1 in 2019.

Visitors from China Help Boost Daily GGR

Nearly three years into its “zero-COVID” policy, China lifted its tough restrictions late last year. The lifting of the restrictions also helped Macau to emerge from the lockdowns and return to normal business operations.

But according to IAG, who cited Kenneth Fong and Sardonna Fong, two analysts for Credit Suisse, the strong GGR figure from last month isn’t only the result of the lifting of restrictions in mainland China and Macau. The analysts said that it is likely the GGR was positively impacted by packaged tours from China. The extra visitation helped by providing a boost for the daily GGR which grew from $43 million and $46 million in mid-March to $59 million and $62 million around the end of the month.

It is clear that the gambling sector in Macau started its recovery. Yet, the industry still needs more time before it can reach and surpass the results reported before the COVID pandemic.



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