Predicting the move

Sportsbook odds suggest in-demand 19-year-old England midfielder Jude Bellingham is most likely to go to Liverpool amid a stellar FIFA World Cup campaign.

Transfermarkt estimates Bellingham’s current value to be €100m ($105.1m)

Bellingham has been the next soccer up-and-comer since he departed Birmingham City in England for a fee of €25m ($26.3m) at just 17 years old. International soccer data website Transfermarkt estimates Bellingham’s current value to be €100m ($105.1m), but rumors suggest he could cost far more than that.

According to sportsbooks, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Real Madrid trail Liverpool in the chase for the generational midfielder. He is under contract with Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund until 2025 and does not have a release clause.

A young star

Bellingham certainly has a case for being one of the the best players at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar thus far, alongside French attacker Kylian Mbappé and Argentinian legend Lionel Messi. As the driving force in England’s midfield, Bellingham has proven instrumental in his team’s progression to the quaterfinals of the competition where they will face France on Saturday night.

Aside from his World Cup exploits, Bellingham has already captained Borussia Dortmund and had his jersey retired by his first professional club Birmingham City – an honor typically reserved for the legends of the game.

many of the world’s best clubs are in for him

Talents such as this young Englishman do not come along every day, which is why so many of the world’s best clubs are in for him. Betting company Paddy Power has Liverpool as a +300 favorite to sign Bellingham, but several fierce competitors believe they are just as likely to acquire his services.

Ranking the candidates

Outside of Liverpool, Manchester City is second in the list of odds to sign Bellingham at +400. They are the reigning English Premier League champions and are regularly thought of as the best team in the world, though a UEFA Champions League trophy continues to evade them.

Manchester United is third at +1000 per the oddsmakers. The Red Devils have lost their dominance over the league but appear to be in a fruitful rebuild under new manager Erik ten Hag and have already integrated fresh younger players like Jadon Sancho, Anthony Elanga, and Alejandro Garnacho into the first team.

If he were to join Madrid, he would enter a star-studded midfield

La Liga team Real Madrid is a +1400 underdog to sign England’s number 22. If he were to join Madrid, he would enter a star-studded midfield that already consists of 20-year-old Eduardo Camavinga, 22-year-old Aurélien Tchouaméni, and 24-year-old Federico Valverde—not to mention the legendary pairing of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos.

One Madrid fan even took it upon himself to recruit Bellingham while he was in Qatar, as seen on Twitter:

An outside chance

Newcastle is also in with a shout at Bellingham at +1600 with sportsbooks. The North England team does not currently have the same profile as the other clubs but now has more money than all of them combined. Newcastle is also third in the English Premier League table with a comparatively weak squad and is showing signs that it will be competitive for years to come.

Chelsea (+2500) rounds out the list of top suitors for the wunderkind. Owner Todd Boehly declared that he will match any figure for Bellingham having already spent a club record during the summer transfer window.

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An exciting potential project

A California developer is planning to build the first new casino resort in Reno, Nevada since 1995. San Diego-based Elevation Entertainment has officially submitted to the City of Reno its development plans for a new casino resort that would have 200 hotel rooms.

first new casino resort in the area since the opening of the Silver Legacy in 1995

The new facility would be constructed close to the Reno-Sparks Convention Center on a 20-acre site that currently sits empty. It would be the first new casino resort in the area since the opening of the Silver Legacy in 1995.

Speaking about the prospective project, Elevation Entertainment CEO Ryan Stones said that Reno was a great gaming market up until the building of the Thunder Valley Casino Resort in Sacramento in 2003, which drew visitors away. He noted that the introduction of non-gaming industries like a Tesla battery factory in Reno has sparked a recovery for the region and that there has been steady demographic growth over the past decade. Stones believes that the new casino project in Reno would be a great opportunity.

Details of the plans

A portion of the proposed site for the new Reno casino resort is owned by casino operator Red Rock Resorts. It previously had plans to construct a casino without a hotel on the site. Elevation Entertainment is under contract to buy the land.

The current working title for the prospective new casino is the Firecreek Crossing Resort-Casino. It is unclear as of yet how much the project would cost; Stones expects it to have 65,000 square feet of casino space, an outdoor pool deck, and restaurants. Elevation Entertainment hopes to get approval for the new casino by the summer and could see construction start in 12 to 18 months’ time.

constructed and operates two California cardroom casinos

Elevation Entertainment has a track record in the US gaming market. It constructed and operates two California cardroom casinos: Seven Mile Casino in Chula Vista and Stones Gambling Hall in Sacramento. Talking about Elevation Entertainment’s future plans, CEO Stones said: “We’ve worked with cities for over 30 years on projects. Our desire is to do more gaming. It fits perfectly with our skill set.”

Reno Mayor Hillary Schieve has talked with the developers and hopes that the new casino resort can go ahead. She has not yet reviewed the current plans, but looks forward to doing so. She believes the hotel rooms are a big plus to the project and that it could be an attractive property to have in the middle of the city.

Reno’s recovering gaming market

Reno’s gaming market hit a peak in 2000 when it generated a one-year record of $859m in revenue. Numerous casinos closed during the 2000s as new tribal casinos across Northern California ate into Reno revenues. There are signs of recovery, with gaming revenue hitting $728m last year, the best one-year total since 2007.

Northern Nevada got its first casino resort in two decades in August when the $120m Legends Bay Casino opened its doors.

Revenue for 2022 is on track to beat last year’s total. Just 16 gaming facilities were up and running in Reno during the 2020 fiscal year, compared to 27 locations back in the 1995 fiscal year. Numerous casinos in the region have changed hands over the past couple of years, receiving much-needed investment.

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The days of the Wild, Wild West are long gone now. Today if you feel like playing poker, you can usually find a local cardroom or casino that offers a safe and protected environment.

But if there’s one thing that card cheaters are good at, it’s coming up with new and imaginative ways to cheat.

Marking cards is one of the oldest tricks in the book and it’s been used to cheat in poker for decades.

While casinos have better ways to track and
catch cheaters these days, there are also new ways to mark cards, so it’s a
never-ending game of cat and mouse.

Plus, poker isn’t always played in a regulated
casino.

Underground and home games are quite popular, even in places where you can easily find official games, and are often the only option for poker fans in places where gambling is illegal.

So it’s very important to protect yourself from
getting cheated with marked cards.

Hopefully, these tips will help protect you and your bankroll, especially if you regularly play in private games.

1. Don’t Play With Shady Characters

As a poker player, there’s nothing wrong with looking for “spots.”

You want to play with people who are bad at poker but have plenty of money to put on the tables.

However, if you’re playing in private games,
you should be very careful about the lineup, especially if you get invited to a
new game.

Whether it’s through marking cards or using some other system (see: the Tip Scam or false deals), you’ll be much more likely to get cheated in a game filled with or run by shady characters.

Of course, this isn’t always easy to recognize,
and sometimes you’ll have no idea you’ve been set up. But sometimes it’s
blatantly obvious.

The very minimum you can do for yourself is to stay away from suspicious games.

As a poker player, you should be able to “read” people to some extent, so use these skills when deciding where you do and don’t want to play.

If you’re being promised a game full of rich
fish by someone who doesn’t even know you that well, you should ask yourself
why they picked you for this awesome “opportunity”?

2. Pay Attention To How Players Handle Their Cards

There are tons of different ways to mark cards these days, but most cheaters aren’t particularly sophisticated.

The most common way to mark cards on the spot is by making slight markings on the edges using your fingernails.

Now, it’s perfectly common for players to shuffle their cards around and even lift them from the table. It happens all the time in private games and casinos alike.

However, if someone’s paying too much attention
to their cards and seems to be squeezing them weirdly, it might be a sign
they’re up to no good.

Don’t be too quick to call someone out, though.

Calling someone a cheater at the poker table is a serious accusation and a big insult for most honest players, so you have to play it smart.

Observe, but keep your observations to yourself for the time being.

3. Look For Unusual Physical Markings On The Cards

If you have a reason to believe a player is
marking cards in some way, you should look for any unusual marks at the back of
the cards.

Are there small, barely visible cuts, or have
edges been bent slightly?

The most efficient way to go about this is to pay attention to big cards like aces and kings.

When using these on-the-spot card marking
techniques, cheaters usually don’t have enough time to come up with an
elaborate scheme to mark the entire deck.

Instead, they’ll try to make important cards stand out, which will provide them with quite a bit of an edge if they can get away with it.

4. Be On The Lookout For Unusual Play Patterns

Unfortunately, there are way more advanced
techniques for marking cards these days.

Invisible ink that can only be seen using
special glasses or under special lightning is usually impossible to detect by
the naked eye, no matter how hard you look.

This is why you should always stay alert when you play poker and be particularly careful about highly unusual situations.

Sure, it happens every now and then that someone calls down a big bluff with queen high, but it’s hardly a common occurrence in regular games.

If there are too many weird hands happening in
a short period of time, it might be a sign that something isn’t right.

You can share your concerns with the floor in a
casino or an official poker room, and they’ll usually look into it for you.

In private games, though, things can be a bit
trickier.

It’s not only that you need to be pretty sure there is cheating going on, but you must also worry about who else is in on it.

If the person running the game knows about it,
your complaints won’t be welcomed, which circles back to the first point.

5. Ask For A New Deck

No matter where you’re playing, there is usually nothing wrong with asking for a new deck if you suspect there’s cheating going on with marked cards.

However, if you’re in a private game and don’t
feel safe, you don’t have to state the reason why you’re asking for the change.

That way, if your request is met with hostility
of some sort, you can still get out of trouble by laughing it off and saying
something along the lines of the current deck not being particularly kind to
you.

Even if the person in charge knows about the
cheating, they’ll usually let it go at this point as they don’t want to upset
their other potential marks.

Of course, they will most likely come up with a
reason why they can’t change the deck, but at least you’ll have a pretty good
idea of where you’re at.

6. Don’t Be Afraid To Leave

You can’t fix the world, and you can’t win in a
rigged game.

Even if you play your best and get very lucky,
eventually, they’ll get you.

And why would you want to spend a second more
than you have to in a game where you suspect the deck is marked?

If you feel something isn’t right, simply get
up, cash your chips out, and leave.

You don’t owe anyone an explanation as to why
you’re leaving but you can always come up with an excuse.

Understandably, you might be afraid to share
your suspicions in a completely new environment where you only know one or two
people, and you shouldn’t feel bad about it.

Once the dust settles, you can maybe talk to
the person who invited you to the game and share your concerns, but only if you’re
pretty sure they aren’t in on it.

If you have your doubts, don’t go there again. That’s the easiest and the best way to protect yourself!

7. Don’t Be Too Paranoid

While it’s important to stay safe, you
shouldn’t be too paranoid about marked cards and other forms of cheating to the
point where you’ll start seeing them everywhere.

It’ll just ruin your overall experience and it
won’t be long before you can’t find a good game because you think they’re all
rigged somehow.

I’ve seen and experienced all sorts of things
in poker and have personally played some very strange hands and got extremely
unlucky bad beats.

So try not to jump to conclusions and pass
judgment based on a few isolated incidents.

If there are several different indicators, though, such as these things happening way too often, the game host refusing to switch the deck, etc., it’s fine to move on and look for a new game.

That said, the biggest advice is to avoid any unknown private games in the first place.

The cheating technology could be way more advanced than we think, so I wouldn’t even consider joining suspicious games.

The best thing to do is stay in regulated poker rooms, where you will be very likely to get help when needed.

You can always ask to exchange decks, inspect the one that is used, and have all your concerns answered.

Better to be safe than sorry.

If you want to read some real-life poker cheating stories, check out:
👉👉R. Paul Wilson On: Faking A Heart Attack To Cheat In Poker
👉👉R. Paul Wilson On: A Beautiful Move in Poker

The Florida Gaming Control Commission held off on approving the sale of Miami’s Magic City Casino to the Poarch Band of Creek Indians Thursday to allow more information about the sale to reach the public.

The pari-mutuel with over 800 slot machines has been owned and operated by the Havenick family since the early 1930s. As a parimutuel, it had primarily been a dog racing track for several decades but Florida voters ended greyhound races through a constitutional amendment in 2018.

The Florida Gaming Control Commission was put into action in 2021 and has a stated mission to, “preserve and protect the integrity of gaming activities through fair regulation, licensing effective criminal investigation, and enforcement.”

The proposed sale, which could still be completed before the end of the year, involves only gambling activities at the casino – other gambling operations owned by the Havenicks, including a Bonita Springs card room permit and summer jai-alai and card games in Miami would not be affected.

Highly Redacted Document

Over 100 pages of the 103-page application were redacted. In addition to the application, a four-page memorandum produced by the commission that recommended the sale’s approval was included in publicly available paperwork.

While gambling enthusiasm remains high in Florida, so does baked-in opposition from various forces. Some in the past have been associated with Disney by some reports, others connected to existing or potential operators trying to keep down the competition, and others yet, simply attributed to religious and other “moral responsibility” groups opposed to gambling.

The “advocacy” group, No Casinos Inc., asked the gaming commission to delay approval of the license transfer application so that the public could learn more about it. No Casinos president, John Sowinski said that the commission was created “to really elevate the public discussion and bring out in the forefront these types of decisions that are made about the gambling industry in our state,” according to a report in the SunSentinel.

Noting the level of redactions of content in the application, Sowinski, said: “The public should have the ability to see and kick the tires of everything that is not truly, truly a trade secret.”

Counsel for the seller, John Lockwood told commissioners the whole deal could fall apart if the deal isn’t closed within the next month.

“This is such a simple and narrow transaction. I had no idea it was going to become such a hotly discussed topic at this commission,” Lockwood said.

Prior to the commission panel being created the application would have been approved or denied behind closed doors. Lockwood said he has worked with the commission since August.

“I’m not taking the position that every single thing that we submitted to this commission is trade secret,” he said while promising “to provide a less-redacted document,” to the commission.

“But again, I would implore the commission to not delay this transaction into next year because I do have fears as to what that would involve for this entire deal,” he said.

Sunshine Law Provisions Not Met

Commission Chair John MacIver said that while there was nothing objectionable in the application, he was concerned about compliance with Florida’s Government-in-the-Sunshine law, which is an open meetings law providing a right of access to governmental proceedings at both the state and local levels.

“If there is an over-redaction of material that the public has not had an opportunity to consider prior to us taking action, I think it would be inappropriate for us to take action at this time,” MacIver said.

The Poarch Creeks already run two gambling facilities in the state but are most well known nationally for their Wind Creek Hospitality holding which purchased Sands Bethlehem in Pennsylvania for $1.3b in 2019. Wind Creek owns gambling facilities in Aruba, Curacao, Chicago, Alabama, and Nevada.

Legal representatives for the Seminole Tribe of Florida (Hardrock) asked the commission to move forward with caution as the translation oversight could set a precedent for future changes in ownership at gambling facilities.

Magic City’s counsel noted that intervention or objections to a change in ownership by third parties would be without any legal authority.

Source: Magic City Casino sale to Native American tribe on hold, South Florida SunSentinel, Dec 01, 2022

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Upping the ante

The eleventh-hour interloper in the multi-corporation gold rush for just three downstate New York casino licenses has upped the ante by adding star power to its pitch.

Jay-Z and his world famous entertainment agency, Roc Nation

For their Times Square casino project, the New York Post revealed Sunday, Caesars Entertainment and New York property developer SL Green (SLG) have inked a partnership with Jay-Z and his world-famous entertainment agency, Roc Nation. Fan account Jay-Z Daily shared a statement on the partnership from the billionaire entrepreneur via Twitter.

“New York is the epicenter of culture. We have the opportunity to create a destination at the heart of the true crossroads of the word,” the world’s most influential hip-hop artist said.

Landing such a heavyweight Brooklyn-born music and entertainment icon and his brand signals Caesars and SLG’s strategic, NY-culture embracing intent in the race for the three licenses.

With license applications opening on January 6, news of the Caesars-SLG-Roc Nation tie-up will likely get the marketing departments from rival bidding groups working overtime refining their proposals.

Major players make big moves

SLG’s annual investor conference on Monday is when — according to the NY Post’s Realty Check — the details of the Jay-Z-Caesars-SLG partnership will be announced. It’s expected, however, that Roc Nation will oversee entertainment programming at 1515 Broadway and other SLG Times Square properties.

thinking outside the pure casino-build box

That groups like Caesars and SLG are thinking outside the pure casino-build box, signals the intensity of the bidding war. This comes from the notion that the widely believed two favorites, Genting-owned Resorts World New York City in Queens and Yonkers’ Empire City Casino, practically have their licenses in the bag.

This essentially leaves just one license for which to fight.

Caesars-SLG’s bid, which came as a late surprise, is for Times Square, while Wynn Resorts-Related Companies are banking on Hudson Yards. Other interested bidders include New York Mets owner Steven Cohen (proposed site near Citi Park), the Soloviev Group (Midtown East), and Thor Equities Group, which has announced a $3bn bid for a Coney Island project. Add Vornado’s Steve Roth, who’s suggested a potential Herald Square bid, and it is clear that the industry’s biggest hitters are heading for a winner-take-all showdown in New York.

No New York gambling mecca

SLG has also used the Jay-Z headliner to nip a wrong perception in the bud, that the Caesars Palace Times Square casino project would be nothing but an oversized gaming pleasure dome. Instead, the New York Post cited SLG CEO Marc Holliday as saying the: “boutique-size casino […] would occupy only eight floors in the 54-story tower.”

Holliday also announced an approximately 800-room, five-star hotel at the site. This dovetails with SLG-Caesars getting onboard with certain aspects of the bidding criteria. Namely, that applicants will need to demonstrate to the New York state sitting committee how many quality jobs their gaming facility would create and how it would boost revenue for the locality and the state.

With Jay-Z now on board, the Caesars Palace Times Square bid has that entertainment X-factor base covered.

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Nixon bests an elite field to bag £93,970 

Last Sunday saw popular poker player, vlogger, and Twitch streamer Jamie Nixon take down the £1,250 ($1,530) Grosvenor UK Poker Tour (GUKPT) London Main Event for a career best £93,970 ($115,039). Better yet, he did it on home soil of sorts – Nixon is a Grosvenor Poker sponsored player. 

347 brave souls took their seats in London’s prestigious Victoria Casino, 34 made the money, and when it got down to the final nine, the cream had risen to the top with Irish Open winner Ryan Mandara, WSOP Main Event Finalist Antonine Labat, and Bellagio Cup winner Killy Sidhu all still in the mix. 

 a significant marker for a great player who had never previously closed out a big live tournament

In the end, however, it was Nixon who emerged victorious from the talented final table, a significant marker for a great player who had never previously closed out a big live tournament. Nixon sat down with VegasSlotsOnline News on the heels of this fantastic score. 

Interview

David K. Lappin: First of all, congratulations on the terrific result. When I messaged you the day after you won, you jokingly said “I finally didn’t bottle it.” Earlier this year, you had a trio of runner-up finishes in the Irish Open High Roller, PPC UK High Roller, and UKIPT London High Roller. Did you feel like there was a monkey on your back? 

Jamie Nixon: Thanks very much mate! Yeah, it’s been a long time coming this one. As you mentioned, earlier this year, I had that string of three second places. They all came in the space of a month, so I think that was playing on my mind ever since. In London though, I felt zero pressure – probably because of the fact I was ill and was completely drained of energy! I’ve done a lot of work on the heads-up element of my game too, but fortunately I didn’t have to use much of it as it only lasted four hands!

DKL: It was a tough final table – as tough as any I’ve ever seen at Grosvenor events. Can you describe the final table from your point of view? 

JN: The standard at the final table was very high and I’m actually good friends with Ryan Mandara, Kully Sidhu, and Mitch Hynam. I felt comfortable in that crowd, though, and knew that if I played my game, I’d be fine skill-wise. I came in with a decent stack, but dwindled for a while with the card distribution not doing me any favors, but fortunately, I ran well at the right time!

DKL: When you have had nice results in the past, have you ever splurged on something nice for yourself, or is it just money on the pile? 

JN: I’m a family man so the majority of the splurges have had some purpose – a house deposit and a new car (although I splurged more than I should have on the car as I persuaded my better half Ellie to let me get a Range Rover). I’d say the majority of the fun spending money goes on meals out. My son Charlie has an expensive pallet and loves his sushi!

DKL: On a recent episode of “The Chip Race,” Dara said that your most striking feature is your “apparent total unflappability.” That’s a great quality to have as a poker player. It probably means that you rarely stray far from your A-game. If you had to identify a leak that creeps in, one that you have to watch out for, what is it? 

JN: That’s very kind of Dara! I’d definitely say that I agree as I don’t really get stressed out at the table, which certainly helps. Leaks wise though, I would say I have loads. I’m probably not as studied 80bb+ as I should be, and I definitely need to work on that more. Also, despite studying heads-up a lot this year, I’d say I’m a long way from perfect! So next time I’m heads-up with Dara, he’ll know he can go for the kill!

DKL: One thing I’ve noticed is that, unlike a lot of poker players, you understand the value of a dollar. Whether that is because you had a job before poker or because you have a young family, it manifests itself in you being a very steady, responsible young man. Has that helped you as a poker player or hindered you as it made you more risk averse on occasions when there were good shots to take? 

JN: Are you calling me a nit, David? Haha. 

Yeah for sure, I’ve been pretty open in the past about how before poker, I wasn’t doing amazingly well financially. I was very much a month-to-month type of guy, as a lot of people are these days. I wouldn’t say that it makes me risk averse, as if I’ve got a big roll, I’ll definitely take shots. I just won’t take the sort of risks that could get me back to the position I was in before poker. I always need to have that buffer there. I would say it’s definitely helped me, as I’ve managed to build steadily.

DKL: You’ve posted a monthly vlog for the last two months at least. I assume this win will feature heavily in the next one? 

JN: I’ve been more focused on live poker over the last nine months, so I’ve been unable to stream as often on Twitch. I realized that the obvious thing to do was to start creating vlogs to fill the void. They are a great way to look back on what you’ve done down the line too, rather than just having the memories. 

It’s a funny thing actually, I did start it for GUKPT London on Day 1, but on Day 2 I fell ill with food poisoning and could barely lift my head up, never mind record video so I ended up not doing it, for the biggest win of my career so far! Run bad even when I’m winning, right? I’m going to try and put something together from other people’s videos and the live stream footage though!

DKL: For the last few months, you’ve been hosting a “Vegas Home Game” in which there is a leaderboard to ultimately give away a £10,000 ($12,242) Vegas package. Can you tell me more about that?  

JN: I’ve been running a weekly home game on Grosvenor Poker for a number of years now and the latest promo is to take a couple of people to Vegas in Summer 2023. The competition is ongoing until the end of December! 

Each month we have a leaderboard for my home game and the top three players from each month go into a final (played in January) where they’ll be joined by the top three each month in my fellow pro Katie Swift’s league. In that final, two players will win a package to go to Vegas, as well as lots of others winning a number of tournament tickets! It’s all added value, too, so it’s great to be able to run something like that. 

DKL: A few years ago, you came on “The Chip Race” to do a strategy segment. Some strategy guests bring successful bluffs or hero calls that they made but you brought a hand that you described as “the worst hand I ever played.” I think that speaks volumes for you and the way you always put ego to one side in the pursuit of improvement. So…have you played a worse one since?

JN: Probably a load of them! I did play one recently which I’ll say is worse, not because of how I played it but because it nearly got me beaten up!

I was in Cyprus a couple of weeks ago for the $3k main and we were in a three-bet pot. We got to the river on a four-spade board. I had AQ so I elected to put in a large river bluff. My opponent (a very large, scary looking Turkish guy) tanked for five minutes before calling. I said “good call” whilst tabling my hand, only to see the Q not the Q, which beat his set! He was fuming, throwing the chips at me as well as flipping his seat over! I thought he was going to kill me, but fortunately I got moved table two hands later, otherwise I might not have made it home from Cyprus!

DKL: Ha, ha, we’ll I’m glad you got home in one piece and once again, huge congratulations on the brilliant result. 

GUKPT London Main Event Final Table Results 

1. Jamie Nixon – £93,970
2. Kully Sidhu – £64,980
3. Phil Clarke – £39,630
4. Mitch Hynam – £24,995
5. Antoine Labat – £16,780
6. Justin Tsui – £12,140
7. Ryan Mandara – £9,285
8. Nikolai Mamut – £7,855
9. Yucel Eminoglu – £6,425

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How serious poker bad beats are will depend on the amount of money lost by the unlucky player. Despite all this, the worst bad beats in poker are relatively rare. This is due to how unlikely the situation of having an incredibly strong hand is, and suddenly just the one possibly better hand to counterstrike appears out of the blue.

Many people think they have experienced poker bad beats. Nevertheless, they happen with the strongest hands that are possible. If you want to learn about the worst bad beats in poker and read about real cases that happened in famous poker tournaments, we suggest that you keep reading this blog post.

Which Are the Wrongly-Called Poker Bad Beats?

There are frequent misunderstandings when referring to poker bad beats. There are players who think that whenever they lose with a strong hand, that’s already a bad beat. But in reality, an actual bad beat in poker occurs when one of the strongest hands loses to an even stronger hand.

AK versus 9 and 8 is a strong hand that should win in most cases if players go all-in preflop. Nonetheless, this example does not match the definition of nearly unbeatable and can’t really be considered a bad beat. Let’s now check other situations commonly referred to as bad beats in poker, although they are not real ones.

The best-starting hand in the game has two Aces because it will win about 85% of the time. However, the probability of winning 3 in a row when all-in pre-flop is around 60%. So, when you lose 1 out of 3 times when all-in with Aces, you’re not in a situation to call it one of the worst bad beats in poker.

Another mistakenly called bad beat is when you have an overpair going into the river, and your opponent is holding an underpair. In this case, they must hit a set on the river to win. With only two outs, the probability of losing is slightly under 5%. With a 95% chance of winning, even if you eventually lose, you can’t call this a poker bad beat.

What Are the Real Bad Beats?

What starts to look more like a bad beat is when the probability drops down to around 2% or less. That’s the case of the rivered one outer. It will only happen about 2.3% of the time, but still, this percentage is not crazy low. All in all, bad beats are not all about losing to 1 or 2 outs.

Let’s picture a situation where player 1 has two Aces and player 2 one Ace and one K on a J, J and 5 flop. Player 1 would win about 98% of the hands, only losing to two Ks, a 10 and a Q, or two Js on the turn and river (split). This is now a really bad beat.

On the other hand, a much crazier scenario would be one where the probability is 1 against 4324. A very strong hand that loses to an even stronger one is actually known as “cooler”. In this situation, both players may have played their cards well, but avoiding the bad beat could not have been fulfilled.

One common example of a cooler is getting dealt pocket kings and going all in preflop against pocket aces. This is a scenario where there is nearly no chance of getting away from your hand. What’s unbelievable is seeing that the other player has two Aces. However, it’s something that can often happen online and at land-based poker tournaments, as thousands and thousands of hands are played.

Examples that can occur post-flop are making a nut flush and losing to a straight flush. Also, making a full house and losing to a higher one. Actually, coolers are not that much different from bad beats, as, again, the cooler hand will be second in strength.

Worst Bad Beats in Poker Online

Probably, you have heard that it is more common having bad beats in online poker. This fact is due to the number of hands played per hour, which might reach 80 or even more. This is totally different on a live poker table, where the number is usually around 20 hands.

As obvious as it sounds, if you are playing four tables online, for example, this gives around 20 times more hands per hour. Consequently, the amount of potentially the worst bad beats in poker online is higher. Of course, this also happens on the best online poker sites in the UK, which are definitely worth a visit.

Getting regular bad beats in online poker is a problem for many gamblers. When one experiences continued suck outs in online poker, a closer examination of the programme used on the poker sites should be carried out. Many make conclusions about why there are constant bad beats in online poker.

Bad beats in poker online could be a result of the software used by the poker sites. This issue may be provoked by a flaw created by programmers in an attempt to make the game appear fair. Using statistical algorithms to simulate fair play, the poker sites could have accidentally created situations where the worst hand will have an evident advantage over the best hand.

There could be a solution to this problem, which would be to recognise the patterns by which these algorithms work. Once you are able to see the patterns and understand the way the software works, you may avoid the constant bad beats in online poker. Once you have an understanding of these programmes, you may become a better online player and win more often.

Popular Bad Beat Cases in Real Poker Tournaments

It is very common to see video compilations of the best bad beats in poker with some of the best poker players in action. One of the craziest poker bad beats was in the final table of the 2019 World Series of Poker when Bryce Yockey had a 99.8% hand destroyed by Josh Arieh on the final draw.

Yockey started with the second strongest hand, which had a 1 in 2548 chance of happening. Arieh needed three draws to beat him to make the only combination that could do so. The only way for Arieh to get the winning hand was making a straight first before drawing to the perfect 7-5 low.

This is the worst beat I’ve ever seen in a televised tournament. Schulman, World Series of Poker commentator.

Once defeated, Yockey was left with fourth place and collected $325,989. Then, John Esposito, Phil Hui, and Josh Arieh went on for the $1,099,311 first prize. Another bad beat case occurred when Vanessa Selbst flopped trip Aces, putting Gaelle Baumann in a detrimental position with trip 7s. However, a fourth 7 on the turn made Baumann knock Selbst out.

Another brutal bad beat happened when Sang Liu was one card away from $1,000,000 and a World Series Bracelet. He even started celebrating having one of the craziest poker hands before a river card appeared on the table. Roberly Felicio got an 8 and won the event. He couldn’t believe it and dropped down to his knees, filled with joy.

Tips for Facing Poker Bad Beats

In case you are shocked by a terrible bad beat in poker, we have a few tips for you not to lose it and go full tilt. First and foremost, you should certainly continue following the responsible gambling practices. You don’t want to develop a gambling addiction either, so you’d better watch out for your gambling activity. Check the tips out in the chart below:

Now that we have covered what bad beats in poker are and given a few tips to cope with them, it’s time to end this article with some significant inferences. Keep in mind that everyone has the same exposure to suckouts and will, on paper, receive the same percentage of bad beats as everybody else in the long term.

From a theoretical point of view, the long-term negative effects of bad beats are irrelevant. So, if you practise proper bankroll management and are aware that bad beats are inevitable, you will be both mentally and financially prepared. To conclude, don’t be a sucker. Remember that next time you lose a big pot in an unlikely situation, the odds are in your favour.

Bad Beats Jackpots

Some casinos, both online and land-based, offer bad beat jackpots. Not all poker games offer bad beat jackpots and those which do have specific requirements for how strong a losing hand must be to qualify for the jackpot. Some of the most commonly seen rules for qualifying for a bad beats jackpot are:

The bad beat jackpot is paid out when a minimum hand of four-of-a-kinds 5’s is beaten by a higher four-of-a-kind (and so on). Again, we should mention that every casino or gambling operator has certain terms and conditions, and the lowest qualifying hands might differ from one place to another.

Frequently Asked Questions

This article on poker bad beats has come to an end. However, we have prepared a few frequently asked questions in order to clarify any doubts you may have. Keep in mind that the answers will jump to the paragraph of interest for you to broaden the information. Check them out below:

Monster casino deal

In what the Wall Street Journal has deemed one of the biggest US casino deals of 2022, private equity giant Blackstone is selling its 49.9% stake in MGM Grand Las Vegas and Mandalay Bay to New York City-based Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) VICI Properties.

biggest landlord on the Las Vegas Strip

The WSJ revealed the deal valued at $5.5bn on Thursday, strengthening the REIT’s position as the biggest landlord on the Las Vegas Strip by a considerable margin. Blackstone’s shares nosedived almost 10% on the news, prompting author-entrepreneur Gerald Peters to share the trading opportunity via Twitter:

The transaction sees VICI — which already owned a 50.1% stake in MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay — pay Blackstone $1.27bn in cash and assume the firm’s share of some $3bn in debt “at a 3.56% rate through 2032,” reports CNBC.

Appearing on CNBC’s Power Lunch, VICI CEO Ed Pitoniak labeled the 3.56% deal a good one considering the REIT might have expected to pay 6%.

Benefits for both

Pitoniak used the Power Lunch platform to reveal the speed at which the deal, expected to close in the first quarter of 2023, came together after Blackstone approached him “just a couple weeks ago.”

“We were very excited about the opportunity. Obviously it simplifies our structure, but it gives us total ownership of two of the most iconic assets on the Las Vegas Strip the MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay,” Pitoniak said.

While the transaction reinforces VICI’s S&P 500 presence, it gives Blackstone both short-term gains and buffers. In the former category, the WSJ cites sources familiar with the deal who claim the sale should earn Blackstone a profit of over $700m in less than three years, including rent from the operator. In addition, the seller stated it can use the proceeds to purchase higher-return assets, such as industrial and rental properties.

Blackstone shareholders spooked

Another reason for the deal from Blackstone’s side is the need for a financial buffer to allow investor withdrawals.

a hike in withdrawals in October and November

The company saw a hike in withdrawals in October and November from Blackstone’s real estate fund, Breit. The fund is selling the stake in the two Vegas casinos, with proceeds going to help Breit meet these requests. 

On Thursday, Breit posted a notice to shareholders on its website to inform investors it would allow them to withdraw only 0.3% the fund’s net assets in December, after exceeding its monthly limit of 2% by 2.7%, or around $1.8bn, in October. The withdrawal cap baulked Blackstone shareholders, hence the 10% fall in share price Thursday as investors rushed to exit following news of the VICI deal.

Blackstone still owns the physical assets of the Cosmopolitan and the Bellagio. Company COO Jay Gray confirmed that despite the VICI sale it still sees Vegas as “a high conviction market.”

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A hard stance

Ontario residents can no longer legally place sports bets on UFC fights due to concerns over the integrity of the sporting body.

non-compliance with AGCO’s betting integrity requirements.”

The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) announced the move on Thursday. The gaming regulator ordered all registered operators to stop accepting UFC wagers “due to non-compliance with AGCO’s betting integrity requirements.”

As per the AGCO’s rules, sports governing bodies need to enforce codes of conduct that stop insiders from engaging in betting while also implementing safeguards to prevent match-fixing.

Concerns over insider betting

In its press release announcing the ban on Thursday, the AGCO said UFC does not fully prohibit all insiders from wagering on its fights, such as coaches, handlers, medical professionals, managers, and other people who might have access to insider information.

The AGCO decided to take action due to a number of recent incidents, such as reports of suspicious betting patterns for fights and allegations of insiders betting on the outcome of bouts.

In a statement, AGCO CEO and registrar Tom Mungham asserted that insider betting rules are in place to protect the public. He also said that the UFC betting ban was not a decision that was made lightly as it’s a popular wagering market.

The AGCO said it is committed to working with sportsbook operators, the UFC, and other parties to try to bring about a return of UFC betting in the future once relevant improvements are made.

A recent suspicious incident

One recent UFC fight in the spotlight for the wrong reasons was a November 5 bout between Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Darrick Minner. Numerous bodies began investigations into allegations of suspicious betting on the fight.

interest resulted in a significant shift in odds pre-fight

Various sportsbooks received unusual betting interest for two options: one for Neurdanbieke to knock out his opponent in the first round and the other for the fight to last less than 2.5 rounds. This interest resulted in a significant shift in odds pre-fight. Neurdanbieke won the bout by knockout after just 67 seconds in the first round.

The Nevada State Athletic Association is considering disciplining Minner for not disclosing certain information on his pre-fight medical form. Since then, the New Jersey regulator told its sportsbooks they can no longer offer betting on fights in which Minner’s coach James Krause has any sort of involvement.

It was only last month that the UFC officially announced fighters and members of their team cannot place bets on fights. Explaining the decision, UFC chief business officer Hunter Campbell said it was due to the direction from betting regulators. Fighters can still have gambling-related sponsors.

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Super Bowl to drive sports betting

Widespread sports betting in the United States, in its four-and-a-half-year lifespan, has proven to be an inevitability. Sportsbooks have launched in 31 states and are due to appear in another five, live commentators read betting odds during games, and media giants now air gambling-dedicated shows.

The crown jewel in American sports betting is the Super Bowl. One would assume that states would assemble their sports betting markets in the best fashion in anticipation of the Super Bowl, but that has proven to be untrue in recent years.

is it possible that states will have their hands forced into passing legislation

With five of the top ten favorites to reach this year’s Super Bowl hailing from states without legal sports betting, is it possible that states will have their hands forced into passing legislation they have opposed thus far? 

Taking center stage

The Super Bowl regularly produces eye-watering numbers for viewership and fan participation.

The American Gaming Association estimated that Americans would bet $7.6bn on the Super Bowl in 2022, a-near 80% increase from Super Bowl LV in 2021. Many states later reported record totals for daily and monthly betting totals thanks to the big game.

Two states absent from the record-breaking festivities were California and Ohio, each of which had a representative in the game. California also hosted the Super Bowl in SoFi Stadium, leading them to miss out on what could have been the biggest payday in sports betting history. 

through October 2022, sports betting in America produced $69.5bn in handle

Even without several of America’s biggest states, both in terms of population and financial clout, including California, Texas, and Florida, sports betting has grown to colossal heights. Through October 2022, sports betting in America produced $69.5bn in handle, including $5.4bn in revenue and $1.2bn in state taxes.

Several states have drafted and passed legalization since the most recent championship bout in February, but there are still a few notable absentees that could face the brunt of the consequences in just a few months.

Local pressure based on team performance

As noted earlier, five of the ten favorites to make the Super Bowl are from states without legal sports betting markets. This includes the San Francisco 49ers (California), Kansas City Chiefs (Missouri), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Florida), Dallas Cowboys (Texas), and Miami Dolphins (Florida).

According to Sports Handle, California bettors could have wagered as much as $300m on the previous Super Bowl, and both California and Ohio could have combined to bet over $400m on the game between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. That would have led to $21m in revenue for California operators and $2.1m in taxes for the state. 

This year’s Super Bowl may not be in California like last year’s was, but it is in nearby Arizona and will surely attract a pack of California travelers. The 49ers also have more local fans than the Rams, which could have driven a larger turnout in sportsbooks.

the most-watched regular-season football game ever

The Dolphins and Cowboys also come from influential areas of the country. The latter specifically is a ratings darling, having just combined with the New York Giants on Thanksgiving to produce the most-watched regular-season football game ever.

The Chiefs are somewhat buried in the midwest, but they are one of the most exciting and popular teams in the league. They are also hamstrung by Missouri’s laws preventing sportsbooks from accepting wagers, while other midwestern states have recently passed or proposed legalization efforts. 

It is too much to expect states to fully base their sports betting future on the weight of the Super Bowl, but it is not an understatement to say that they could face immense pressure based on what this year’s game produces.

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