Years ago at the start of the poker boom, I had an idea and outlined a yet unfinished novel about a huge-prize-money televised poker tournament where the hole-card feed was compromised and a player won through cheating. My message was that it wasn’t inconceivable that this could occur and tournament organizers and TV producers needed to be extremely vigilant in making sure this couldn’t happen.

From its beginnings in America, poker suffered from a reputation as a game populated with cheaters. In fact, in his book Cowboys Full, Jim McManus describes how, in the early days of poker in America, it was widely known as the “cheating game.” (I wrote a blog post about this a few years ago.)

When poker exploded on the Internet, the majority of players were high-school and college kids, many of whom were unwise to the realities of the world, especially where money is involved. Exposed hole-card scandals at online sites Absolute Poker and UltimateBet, as well as many other types of Internet cheating, wised them up quickly and greatly damaged confidence in the integrity of online poker.

One of the popular aspects of the poker boom was a plethora of TV poker shows, such as “High-Stakes Poker” and “Poker After Dark,” as well as expanding coverage of the World Series of Poker, the World Poker Tour, and other major events. These shows used technology to enable the viewing audience to be part of the action by being shown the players’ hole cards. They also depended on players and viewers trusting that the hole-card information was secure from other players at a table. In my book outline, the cheating was done through someone in the TV control room, who knew the hole cards and electronically signaled his cohort at the table.

After poker’s Black Friday on April 15, 2011, when the U.S. government shut down the major online sites, brick-and-mortar poker was pretty much the only game in town for American poker fans and these poker shows had an avid following.

Fast forward to 2019 when the Mike Postle scandal erupted. It concerned a livestream cash game at Stones Casino in Sacramento, where Postle seemed to make every right decision over a period of time and was seen as acting suspiciously at the table, indicating that he might be getting information about his opponents’ hands (the story is told in Chapter 48 of Huntington Press’ recently published The 50 Greatest Stories in Poker History). People in the TV control room, as well as the commentators, generally have the hole-card information, as they did in the Postle situation. One of the commentators, Veronica Brill, leveled the charges, posting an 18-minute video presenting her evidence. Poker Internet chatrooms exploded. It was even covered on ESPN’s “Sports Center.” While no charges were filed and lawsuits were dismissed, it was a major black eye for live poker. 

Another major scandal erupted recently, concerning the livestream of the popular Hustler Casino live-poker show. A relative novice player named Robbi Jade Lew made a seemingly absurd call in a huge pot against top-pro Garrett Adelstein that set the poker world on fire once again. There’s an ongoing deep investigation into this incident and I don’t know what the final conclusion will be. But the accusations alone are another black eye for poker’s reputation.

Here’s a youtube link to the Hustler hand. The hand in question starts around the 2-minute mark:

A lot of other videos on YouTube show various players’ reactions and investigations into scandal.

Poker has been in a downswing since the government shut down access to the major offshore sites, such as PokerStars, for Americans in 2011. The one thing that has kept poker in the public eye is the televised and streamed poker shows. If the viewing public loses confidence in the integrity of those games, it may cause a further erosion of poker’s popularity.

In all the incidents I’ve mentioned, the cheaters were caught, because they made plays that made no poker sense. At Absolute Poker and UltimateBet, absurd plays sounded the alarm. At Stones Casino, Postle seemed to play too perfectly for a long while before it was noticed and he was called out. And the incident at Hustler was triggered by a nonsensical play. 

In all the cases where cheating was alleged by way of a player knowing the opponents’ hole cards, if there was, in fact, cheating and the cheaters were smart about it, they would have used the information very selectively, slowly grinding out a profit, and would never have made plays that raised any suspicions. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if smart cheaters are out there operating now and perhaps have been for a long time.

Being reactive rather than foreseeing and acting to prevent bad scenarios seems to be the human condition, especially when the cost of preventative measures is hard to justify to investors. We didn’t secure airplane-cockpit doors until after 9/11. Likewise with inspecting shoes after shoe-bomber incidents. The two live-poker instances cited in this post happened in relatively minor poker events. There have never been accusations in televised major events like the World Series of Poker. Hopefully, that’s because those producers have been extremely vigilant in assuring the integrity of their broadcasts. But if the producers and owners of these live cash-game shows don’t take the steps, and allocate the funds necessary, to ensure players are protected from cheaters, square players will refuse to participate, TV audiences will tune out and poker’s black eye will never heal.

Our guest this week is Anthony Curtis. We talk about what’s new in Las Vegas.

We welcome your questions – send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.

podcast – https://www.spreaker.com/user/7418966/ac11012022

Show Notes

00:00]  Introduction

[00:48]  Mattress Mack and the World Series

[05:32]  Is the free furniture deal still available?

[08:36]  Does Mattress Mack really want the Astros to win?

[10:12]  Grand Prix is Las Vegas, celebrity racing odds

[18:41]  Tilman Fertitta

[20:58]  Station casinos, lost points, hoarding points

[25:33]  Commercials

[29:41]  Don Schlesinger’s upcoming book

[35:24]  Bob Dancer and Phileas Bruce strategy cards

[41:07]  Las Vegas Advisor is going digital

[45:00]  Recommended:  $25 match plays at The D, $1M photo display at Binion’s

Sponsored Links:

https://SouthPointCasino.com

https://BlackjackApprenticeship.com

https://VideoPoker.com/gwae

https://Unabated.com

Books Referenced:

Sportsbook Management by Roxy Roxborough – https://amzn.to/3NyRxkD

Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger – https://amzn.to/3zG8h3M

Connected Vegas Style by Richard Wilk – https://amzn.to/3WxSMF8

Recommended:

Match play promotions at The D

$1M display at Binion’s

Pick your one or two best gambling decisions throughout your life. Pick them before reading on. Take however much time you need. This blogpost will be here when you get back.

This post has been inspired by my recent reading of Annie Duke’s books, “Thinking in Bets” and “Quit.” I wrote about these books last week. I’m not sure which book spoke about this topic. I read them more or less concurrently as audiobooks checked out from the library, and they’ve both been returned.

Had I answered this question before I read Duke’s works, I probably would have chosen that night in 2001, following comped tickets to the Espys at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, where I hit a $100,000 royal flush followed a half-hour later by Shirley, my wife at the time, hitting one for $400,000. That was my biggest score ever (so far!), and indirectly led to my “Million Dollar Video Poker” autobiography, while also making others believe I was a strong player. 

Today, that evening wouldn’t make my top ten in terms of gambling decisions.

That night represents my best result — not my best decision. Your result combines your decision-making and your luck. So that was my luckiest night. But probably not my best decision. By the time that evening came along, I knew the MGM Grand system could and had already made the decision to put in as many hours as I could before either the games were removed — or I was. That night was part of an earlier decision (which may well be among my best ones), but there was nothing special about gambling that night — other than the lucky result. I was not a better player one day after that night compared to my skill level the day before. But the score convinced others that I was an expert.

Another good decision concerned getting ready for a series of promotions — including how much to play, starting when, and what deception to use to make the play last longer. Less than a week before I arrived, they removed the game I planned to play. What I planned didn’t translate to the best remaining game. So, all that planning came to naught. Still, the decisions I made getting ready for the play were excellent. The fact that the game was removed prior to me being able to implement the play doesn’t mean my decisions were faulty in the least.

Annie Duke muses that when most people think about their best decisions, they almost always pick ones that turned out well. They are not separating the decision itself, which they can control completely, with the amount of luck that arose while implementing the decision, over which they have much less control. The result itself is very loosely correlated with the quality of the decision.

They say, “Luck favors the well prepared,” and I tend to agree. Making good decisions to put yourself in position to win is an important part of the winning process. Still, when you draw two cards to three aces, it’s largely luck that determines whether that 2-in-47 fourth ace comes in this time. And some days you’re dealt three aces more often than usual. Sometimes less. You have no control over that.

Keep making good decisions. Good results will usually turn up over time, with lucky and unlucky swings along the way.

 No guest this week as we answer questions from our mail bag. 

We welcome your questions – send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.

podcast – https://www.spreaker.com/user/7418966/mail10252022

Show Notes

[00:00]  Introduction

[00:29]  Video poker videos on YouTube

[04:24]  Shockwave Poker

[07:15]  Social gambling laws in Colorado, tax issues with partners

[14:12]  Gambling books with good story telling

[17:41]  Tipping on handpays

[22:06]  Sign-up bonus strategy

[26:33]  Scratch-off ticket system

[29:50]  Maximizing comps as a couple

[33:02]  Hit and run blackjack strategy

[35:00]  http://SouthPointCasino.com

[36:27]  http://BlackjackApprenticeship.com

[36:57]  http://VideoPoker.com/gwae

[38:04]  http://Unabated.com

[38:41]  Video Poker for Winners versus WinPoker

[39:11]  Sending a DM to Richard Munchkin on Twitter

[40:59]  Richard’s playing deviations and indices

[42:28]  Why don’t smaller casinos offer better video poker pay tables?

[45:29]  DDB question about holding KQJ

[47:49]  Jackpot frequency settings on slots and video poker

[49:12]  Recommended:  Quit by Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

Sponsored Links:

http://SouthPointCasino.com

http://BlackjackApprenticeship.com

http://VideoPoker.com/gwae

http://Unabated.com

Books Referenced:

21st Century Card Counter by Colin Jones – https://amzn.to/3TJNUdV

The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova – https://amzn.to/3TY3KC9

Molly’s Game by Molly Boom – https://amzn.to/3sCNWbS

Lay the Favorite by Beth Raymer – https://amzn.to/3f9cTsm

Ship It Holla Ballas by Jonathan Grotenstein – https://amzn.to/3SIdJty

The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King by Michael Craig – https://amzn.to/3Dhnnh6

Gambling Wizards by Richard Munchkin – https://amzn.to/3fdg8Pq

Comp City by Max Rubin – https://amzn.to/3fcmWwF

Quit by Annie Duke – https://amzn.to/3DAh5L0

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke – https://amzn.to/3DB8Ez8

Last week I wrote that my son-in-law passed away recently. My wife Bonnie is very close to her daughter, Joyce, so we’ve spent more time than usual hanging out together.

It probably had to happen. One of my gambling buddies, “Al,” lost his wife to a lengthy illness some time ago. Bonnie likes Al a lot. After Joyce signaled that she might be ready to date, setting up Al and Joyce for at least one blind date became inevitable. So, we made it happen. Although Al and Joyce were both involved in Bonnie’s and my wedding party eight years ago, they didn’t remember each other. They were both married at the time and not at all on the make. They were polite to each other, but I guess neither did anything particularly memorable that day!

We recently got four show tickets at South Point.  Since Al and I each also had dining coupons at the South Point, we set it up a foursome for dinner and the show. With Bonnie and I both there, that’s about as safe as a blind date can get.

This was very soon after I had discovered the promotion at Molly’s I wrote about here a few weeks ago. The closest Molly’s was about two miles away from the South Point, and more or less on the way home for both Al and Joyce — who had come in separate cars, out of an abundance of caution on a blind date.

I suggested they stop by Molly’s after the show if they were still talking to each other. If they weren’t talking to each other, Bonnie and I would take Joyce to Molly’s and Al could go to hell! (I didn’t expect this result, of course, but can’t resist a good one-liner.)

Going to Molly’s would give them some time together without Bonnie and me hovering nearby, and Joyce would get a chance to see Al “in his element.” I explained the promo to Al (as I knew it at the time — now I have more information and would explain it differently.) He’s been to enough of my classes and has been gambling for long enough that he could exploit this promotion just fine — and could guide Joyce through it if she were willing to be guided.

I suggested to Joyce that Al would know how to play all the hands perfectly and she should follow his advice. Al piped up, “I just hold the aces,” to which Joyce replied, “Me too.”

The thing is, Al was 100% joking and Joyce 100% wasn’t.

The next day Bonnie got a text from Joyce saying she had a good time, would go out with Al again if he asked, and won $43.75 the night before to Al’s $37.50. “The thing is, though, he kept watching me play and telling me what to do on the machine. I hate that! I like to make my own decisions.”

Joyce is clueless about the winning process at gambling. She plays for fun. Extracting the most out of any given situation is not something for which she strives. Her previous husband lost many, many tens of thousands of dollars gambling, at least, over the years. To her, that’s the normal result if you gamble.

Al, on the other hand, plays to win. We’ve often played the same promotions, using similar strategies. We’ve discussed various games and promotions over the years — each of us trying to discover something to help us extract a little bit more.

Whether this difference of opinion on gambling is too much for them to overcome is for them to work out. 

I texted Al, kidding him that he was clever to let her win more at Molly’s. I told him I didn’t really care if they matched up with each other and intended to stay friends with him either way.

He told me that he was going to ask her out again and wanted to know that if it worked out, would he have to call me Dad?

It didn’t take me long to respond: “Absolutely! And make sure you don’t get too frisky with Mom!”

So, I don’t know what will happen from here. I do know, though, that a number of couples have split up because they couldn’t agree on gambling issues. It’s all fun and games when you’re winning, but losing $10,000 or more of community property makes it an entirely different ballgame.

Joyce has seen Bonnie and me together for the past nine years. She knows Bonnie is happy she’s with me and that I’ve been successful at doing what I do. Trusting me didn’t come easily for Joyce, but now I think she does. And she has heard me say that Al has the skills, discipline, and bankroll to be successful at gambling. Presumably, she can conclude that I’m someone knowledgeable enough to make that determination. 

While she’ll still do her own research and come to her own conclusions, she’s far more willing to give Al the benefit of the doubt than she would have been had she met him out of the blue while not knowing me and my lifestyle first.

I’m rather curious to see how this plays out. And however it does play out, I’ve probably written enough about it and will let them have some privacy going forward.

Our guest this week is Rob Pizzola.  Rob is a professional sports bettor, and one of the owners of Betstamp, http://betstamp.com. He also has a podcast called, Circles Off.

.

I wrote recently in a two-parter about a trip I took where I ended up quite a bit ahead. Sometime after I got back, Bonnie and I were having dinner with her sister, Robin, and Robin’s husband. Robin asked about the trip.

“Bonnie tells me you did pretty well there.”

“Yes. A $200,000 trip is pretty special,” was my reply. I was assuming Bonnie had given Robin the complete story, which wasn’t the case. Bonnie had told her I had done well, but not how well.

“Whoa! I had no idea you did that well. If you made $200,000 on that trip, why are you here. Why aren’t you still there?”

The question took me by surprise. I didn’t put together a complete answer that night, but here’s what perhaps I should have said. Long-time readers of mine won’t be surprised by this. If you’re not familiar with the way a successful gambler analyzes things, maybe you will be.

First of all, my score last time is not a major consideration for why I make a play. Yes, I captured lightening in a bottle that time, but it would be foolish to expect identical results next time. Sure, it could happen — with a probability of far less than 1%. A loss of more than $100,000 next time has a much higher likelihood than that. Still, I will definitely have an advantage, so going for it is in my plans.  

Here are the types of things I consider. I’m presenting them in the form of questions. Questions for which I either need to know the answers, or about which I can make educated guesses.

1. What’s the return on the game itself in terms of percentages?
2. How much is the slot club worth, including cash back, comps, mailers, and benefits from reaching a higher tier? (Sometimes one or more of these are zero.)
3. What kind of promotions were going on at that time that boosted the return on the game?
4. Are the promotions that were going on during my run still going on, or have they changed?

Without answering these questions in detail here, let me say I believed I had a small advantage, got very lucky, and a major promotion ended. 

5. If I keep winning, how long will the casino tolerate this?

Clearly nothing lasts forever. Doing very well on an eight-day trip can be attributed at least partly to luck. Were I to keep it up over 20 days or so, the casino would likely conclude that whatever I was doing, they didn’t want me doing it at their house. If I lost during a continued stay, that’s not such a good result either. So, neither result would benefit me. Better to take a break.

6. Is the desirable promotion, or a suitable replacement, coming back?

Yes, and accidentally on purpose it just so happened that my next trip was scheduled to be during such a promotion — which also had another attractive opportunity present that didn’t exist the previous time.

7. Did I do anything to deflect the amount of my win?

Yes. I had both a $100,000 jackpot and a $50,000 jackpot while holding one ace each time and drawing four perfect cards. I let my host and everybody in the slot department know that I’ve played for years and never had two such lucky draws so close to each other. I said I thought the first one might be almost 650,000-to-1 and the second one almost that big. (I knew these were bad numbers when I said them. Just saying the exact odds on the $100,000 jackpot were 178,364-to-1 is identifying myself as being far more expert than I want them to believe.)

And, of course, I spoke about my lucky shirts and burning one of them when it ceased to be lucky for me. The more superstitious I can make them think I am, the better.

8. When I go back, am I hoping to win or to lose?

That’s a tough one. I never want to lose, but keeping my long-term welcome there might demand that. A small loss might be the perfect solution. But I’m still playing every hand as best I can. As regular players know, even if you’re playing a good game perfectly, frequent losing sessions are part of the deal. Losses will come about without doing anything extra to generate them.

These thought processes are second nature to me. The only data point Robin had was my score, so she made what she felt was a common-sense inference about what I should do based on that score. I’ve had almost 50 years of gambling experience and lots and lots of study and thought about the winning process. Some of my methods are at major odds with what common sense tells non-gamblers.

The cards in ACE$ Bonus Poker (ABP) are just like the ones in regular Bonus Poker (BP) except there are superimposed yellow letters on four cards: “A” on the ace of clubs, “C” on the ace of diamonds, “E” on the ace of hearts, and “$” on the ace of spades. The order of the suits is alphabetical and contract bridge players will also be familiar with this order.

If you get four aces in ACE$ order, either in positions 1-4 or 2-5, you get paid 4,000 coins instead of 400. I’ve written about this game numerous times and have usually said the only changes you make to regular 8/5 BP strategy to play 8/5 ABP perfectly are to break aces full when the aces are in proper sequence for the bonus.

That is, calling the aces by their superimposed letters, from ACE55 or 6A6E$, among many others, you just hold the aces. From AE$44 or KAE$K, also among many others, you’d hold the full house. 

Turns out whenever I said that’s the only change you make to the strategy, I was wrong! (In one article I found one additional hand, A 8 “467”, but I now know there are more than that.) Breaking in-position aces full hands is the only simple adjustment to make, and for more than 99% of players that’s a useful approximation, but there are a number of cases where you holding one in-position ace, sometimes with another card and sometimes not, in ABP and make another hold in BP.  

A friend of mine, Filius Bruce, who’s a very good computer programmer, has come up with a comprehensive list of such cases. His website www.vidpoke.com. He hasn’t published the strategy for this game yet, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did in the near future.

Let me give you an example. In BP, where suited italicized letters indicate cards suited with each other, as do cards within quote marks, from the hand AQ “89T” you go for the straight flush in BP but hold the AQ in ABP.

Let’s see how common hand that is.

In regular BP, when we don’t care about the position of the cards, this hand arises 12 times out of the 2,598,960 possible combinations. Which in once in 216,580 hands. For reference, that’s three times as often as a dealt royal flush and exactly as often as being dealt aces with a kicker. The way we get 12 times, is the AQ can be any of four suits, and once that suit is selected, the “89T” can be any of the three remaining suits. Four times three equals 12.

In ABP, we start with the same 12 occurrences, but then we have to make adjustments for the position of the ace and the position of the queen. To indicate an ace is in ABP position, I going to underscore it — such as A. For a given suited ace, there can be two positions it can be in. That is, if it’s the ace of clubs, it’s in its proper place if it is either in the first or second position. Similarly, if it’s the ace of hearts, it may be in either the third or fourth position. So that means that only two out of five times will the solitary aces will be in proper position.

Not so obvious until you think about it, the suited queen has to be out of the way in order for the ACE$ to be in order. For example, if the ace of diamonds is in the second position, the queen must be in the fifth so ACE$ may fit into positions 1-4. If the ace of diamonds is in third position, the queen must be in the first so ACE$ may fit into positions 2-5. Once the ace is in position, only one in four times will the queen also be in position.

Since the ace and queen both must be in position for this to work, this will only happen one time in 10 times we have all five cards dealt to us — or one time in 2,165,800 deals. And when it does happen, it’s a pretty close play!

The way I get one in 10 times, is multiplying the 2-in-5 probability the ace is in the correct place by the 1-in-4 probability the queen is in the correct place. There are six different ways the “89T” can be placed in the remaining three spots. All six of these ways are equivalent insofar as the ACE$ bonus goes, so that may be disregarded.

The other hands whose plays are different in ABP than they are in BP are approximately as rare — and as close. It’s fair to say that most of us (including me), don’t want to take the time and energy to remember these rare plays. If we write them down, we will lose far more time storing and looking up the correct play than the correct play is worth!

Nonetheless, it’s an excellent achievement to identify such rare plays even if they are not particularly useful for most players.

National Senior Citizens Day is August 21^st of each year and is an opportunity  to express thanks to older Americans for their contributions to making our families, our communities, and our country better. 

Florida is a destination for older adults, who flock to the state, as do their younger counterparts to enjoy the weather, the beaches, the entertainment, and the lifestyle. As gambling is among recreational activities enjoyed by many seniors, it is not surprising that so many retirees are relocating to the Sunshine State. Per the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates, Florida has the largest percentage of senior citizens (21% or 4.2 million) [1], which doesn’t appear to be slowing.  To document the number of relocations, in 2020, 167 people moved into Florida for every 100 who left, whereas in 2021, that number doubled to 210 inbound residents for every 100 who left, meaning more than twice as many people moved into the state than left it [2]. Further, Tampa was among the top three metro areas that experienced the largest number of new residents from 2010 to 2020, along with Orlando and Miami [3].

For many seniors, gambling provides a social outlet, giving them a place to go and meet others at a time in their lives when they enjoy the socialization.  For others, gambling seems like a fun way to have a little excitement and maybe win some money along the way. As one grows older, some have found that gambling offers a way to fill empty or free time, brought about since retirement or following the loss of a loved one. Over time, slowly, gambling may become viewed as a necessary activity to provide excitement, relief from boredom or sadness, or a place to belong. And some find themselves spending more and more money gambling and less time in other activities. Since gambling may have seemed like a harmless activity in the beginning, it can be difficult to see it in a different light. 

The Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling wants Floridians to know, whether they are living on fixed incomes or not, that while special circumstances may present when gambling becomes a problem among senior citizens, one contact to 888-ADMIT-IT will help them and their families to start their paths to recovery, one step at a time.  Keep in mind seniors have less time and fewer financial resources to recover from social, financial and, particularly, the medical and psychiatric consequences resulting from disordered gambling, so seeking prompt assistance is important and supports are available around the clock. Remember, it’s never too late to start recovering, so this National Senior Day, secure the help you or a loved one needs.

In addition to a breadth of resources and referral organizations, 888-ADMIT-IT can provide self-help workbooks for seniors in print and in audio, for those who experience visual difficulties.  Moreover, 888-ADMIT-IT offers self-help guides for loved ones, who frequently experience many of the same symptoms as their problem gambling counterparts. Beyond a Peer Connect program and an Online Program for Problem Gamblers, 888-ADMIT-IT refers to certified gambling addiction professionals, self-help organizations, and provides diverse supports pending individual circumstances and needs.

If gambling is presenting difficulties in your life or in a loved one’s, Your One Sure Thing, 888-ADMIT-IT can provide the services you need.  The HelpLine may be reached by phone (888-ADMIT-IT or 888-236-4848), text (321-978-0555), email ([email protected]), chat (gamblinghelp.org), via the 888-ADMIT-IT mobile app (https://landing.appypie.com/888-admit-it), or on social media.

1. Reference: Rubin, E. (2022).  Elderly population in U.S. by state. Consumer Affairs. Retrieved Population Over 65 by State (2022) | ConsumerAffairs.
2. Reference: Hayes, K. (2022). New Yorkers and Californians Flock to Florida. Florida Realtors. Retrieved New Yorkers and Californians Flock to Florida | Florida Realtors.
3. Ibid.